Blockware’s Bitcoin analyst Mitchell Askew says the era of wild Bitcoin price swings is coming to an end. According to him, the market will no longer see the rapid parabolic rallies or the brutal bear-market collapses that once defined crypto cycles. The growing dominance of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), he argues, is steadily reducing volatility and reshaping how the asset behaves.
Askew noted on Friday that Bitcoin now acts like “two completely different assets” when comparing price behavior before and after the launch of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. His chart highlights a pronounced drop in volatility following their debut. He writes:
> “The days of parabolic bull runs and devastating bear markets are behind us. Over the next decade, Bitcoin will work its way toward the $1 million mark through repeated cycles of short-term pumps followed by long consolidation phases. This pattern will wear people out and push out short-term speculators.”
Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas agrees that Bitcoin’s reduced volatility has made it more appealing to major, institutional-level investors — giving it a realistic chance of being treated as a legitimate currency. The trade-off? According to Balchunas, the market should no longer expect the dramatic “God candles” that once defined Bitcoin price action.
The rise of ETFs also means more capital is moving into traditional investment vehicles, where holdings cannot be redeemed as physical BTC. As a result, a significant amount of Bitcoin remains locked off-chain. Analysts warn that this institutional investment structure could delay or even suppress the altcoin season that traders typically expect during crypto upcycles.
By July, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $50 billion, yet this massive capital wave did not translate into increased network activity on the blockchain itself. Many retail investors appear to be choosing ETF exposure instead of holding real Bitcoin, allowing fund managers to control the underlying asset on their behalf.
This demand for “paper Bitcoin” — especially products like BlackRock’s ETF — has enabled large asset managers to accumulate sizeable portions of the BTC supply. BlackRock alone now controls about 3% of all existing Bitcoin, raising concerns about growing centralization in what was designed to be a decentralized system.
Taken together, analysts say the Bitcoin of the past decade is gone. Those who continue to rely on old strategies — such as waiting for extreme crashes or betting that Bitcoin will eventually collapse to zero — may need to rethink their approach. As ETFs increasingly stabilize the market, Bitcoin’s volatility is slowly drifting toward levels more commonly associated with gold.
