The publication Protos analyzed 20 market forecasts made by former BitMEX head Arthur Hayes and concluded that 16 of them did not come true. Only two were accurate, and two others relate to future prices and cannot be verified yet.
Examples of Hayes’ forecasts:
– In September 2024, Hayes stated that Bitcoin would “drop below $50,000 this weekend” and opened a short position. The price only fell to $52,546 and did not go lower.
– In January 2025, he predicted a peak in the crypto market in March, but the maximum market capitalization occurred on January 20—the day of Donald Trump’s inauguration.
– In March, he bet that Bitcoin would rise to $110,000 before touching $76,500 again. In reality, $76,500 was breached in April, and $110,000 never materialized.
– Seven tokens that Hayes called promising in January (BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO, and NEURON) have lost between 28% and 89% since the beginning of the year.
Among Hayes’ successful forecasts are the rise of Bitcoin in December 2023 amid expectations of spot ETF approvals in the U.S., as well as the short-term reversal of Ethereum’s price in October of the same year after falling below $1,600.
Two of his forecasts remain open, one of which is Bitcoin at $1 million by 2028.
Hayes is known as the former head of the BitMEX exchange, later found guilty of violating AML regulations in the U.S. He now heads the Maelstrom fund and publishes essays with market forecasts that widely circulate in crypto resources.
One of his latest essays titled “Buy Everything” was released on May 12.
Undoubtedly, Hayes is part of a small circle of market manipulators. He became one during his time as CEO of one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world and remains connected to the group to this day.
Of coure, he cannot be trusted; however, by studying all his previous forecasts, one can find a system and use it for investment decisions. Any loud statements and forecasts from Hayes will always be aimed at leading retail traders to their doom.
Do not let yourself be misled by the siren songs, for these creatures want to instill FUD in you in the name of their master. All these slippery snakes want is to secretly instill loyalty to their false gods.
