Stock market today: Stocks post second straight winning week amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire
Daniel Alison
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Stocks posted their second straight weekly gain amid a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
The S&P (^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) were up more than 3% over the last five days while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) surged more than 4%.
All three indexes traded mostly flat on Friday. The indecisive trading in stocks comes as investors await the results of weekend talks on the tenuous ceasefire in the US-Iran war and follows March inflation data that showed a surge in consumer prices after the start of the war.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) moved back into green figures for the year on Thursday, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) remain off just less than 1% for the year.
The release of the Consumer Price Index data on Friday showed the annual headline rate soared in March to 3.3%. Prices rose 0.9% from February, the largest monthly gain since 2022. The rapid acceleration from February’s inflation level of 2.6% came as the US-Iran war sent gas prices skyrocketing.
Investors are now focused on the Iran-US talks slated to occur this weekend, looking for signs the fragile two-week truce might lead to a longer-lasting plan for peace.
First quarter earnings season will kick off in earnest, with the major money center banks and the two biggest investment banks — Goldman and Morgan Stanley — set to report.
This past week was a busy one for the AI press release battle — who will win the week ahead? And will investors continue selling software names on every new Anthropic model that gets teased?
Will oil prices keep going down? This week, there was plenty of volatility. But from Monday’s open to Friday’s close, the price of oil was down about 10%. No surprise, then, that stocks went up. On a monthly basis now, the price of oil is flat. Stocks over that same period? Also flat.
Tariff revenue totaling $22.15 billion came into US coffers in March, yet another monthly decline after President Trump backtracked on some duties and the US Supreme Court struck down others as illegal.
The reading is the fifth consecutive monthly decline and marks a nearly 30% drop from last October, when monthly tariff revenue peaked at $31.35 billion.
Consumers have experienced, and will continue to experience, higher prices on some goods due to tariffs.
But what continues to be most interesting about this dynamic is that it introduced a new cost into the financial system that at first was a shock, and later became normalized.
And though they are a new cost for American households, the risk for financial markets stopped when the tariff surprises finally stopped.
As we look towards something like a resolution in the Middle East — and specifically think about oil prices in this context — that’s what remains most important to keep in mind: when will this stop getting worse? And has the market already made that call?
Software selling is relentless…
My colleague Jared Blikre made the point earlier today that software stocks can’t catch a break.
With a few hours to go in the trading week, it is worth taking a look at some of the carnage we’re seeing underneath the surface of a market that looks reasonably calm — if lacking some enthusiasm — heading into the weekend.
In the big picture sense, geopolitical developments resolved to the level where investors could return to regularly scheduled programming. Things like earnings season, forthcoming big tech IPOs, and so on.
Unfortunately for software names, the pre-Iran regularly scheduled programming also included “sell anything related to software every day.”
YouTube raises prices for Premium plan
YouTube on Friday raised subscription prices in the United States, with increases of up to $4 set to take effect from the next billing cycle.
The Alphabet-owned video platform said the standard individual YouTube Premium plan would now cost $15.99 a month, up from $13.99, while the family plan price rises by $4 to $26.99 a month.
YouTube Lite, a lower-cost tier that offers ad-free viewing for most videos but excludes YouTube Music Premium and still carries ads on Shorts and music content, will now cost $8.99 per month. The standalone YouTube Music Premium subscription was also increased by $1 to $11.99 a month.
Reuters notes this was the first increase in the cost of its Premium plan — which lets you watch YouTube videos commercial-free — in three years.
An 8-day S&P 500 streak has usually meant more upside
With stocks, strength usually begets more strength.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is trying to clinch an eighth straight day of gains, and history suggests bulls tend to stay in control after runs like this — even if the market pauses first.
8-Day Streaks in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) with Relative Strength Index (RSI)
I marked each of the seven prior 8-day streaks over the past decade in the chart above.
Also shown is RSI, or relative strength index, a momentum gauge that can help show when the market is getting stretched, with readings above 70 often viewed as overbought and below 30 as oversold.
That distinction matters here. The November 2021 streak arrived with RSI near 77 and roughly caught the top of the prior bull market. The last four streaks — including the current one — have come with RSI closer to 60, well below that overbought threshold.
The August 2024 streak was followed by a brief 5% pullback, but the broader trend stayed higher. The other recent signals came near important lows and led to strong multi-month rallies.
Financials lag market, insurance stocks sink on report warning of private credit risks
The financial sector was the biggest laggard in Friday’s trading session with insurance stocks dragging down the XLF (XLF) after a report from A.M. Best published Friday morning warned of growing risks on the balance sheets of insurance giants tagged to private credit.
The biggest losers in the financial sector Friday were shares of Ares (ARES), Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG), Aon (AON), and Willis Towers Watson (WTW)
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