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Shopify ($SHOP) may report better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter, while a weak first-quarter guidance tied to seasonality could create a buying opportunity, RBC Capital Markets said in a Wednesday note.

The e-commerce platform is expected to show strength in gross merchandise volume, or GMV, and margins when it reports holiday-quarter results on Feb. 11, according to RBC analyst Paul Treiber.

Data published by the Census Bureau last week indicating that e-commerce spending rose 8.7% year over year in the fourth quarter implies Shopify’s GMV grew nearly 26% to $94.4 billion, Treiber said. That would be above the consensus at $92.9 billion and RBC’s $93.4 billion estimate.

“GMV is typically the most impactful driver of Shopify’s quarterly results (versus) consensus,” Treiber said. “The strengthening in growth through December is incrementally positive relative to Shopify’s (Black Friday-Cyber Monday) results at the start of December,” which suggested an in-line GMV, he said.

Shopify reported early in December that its merchants reached a record $11.5 billion in sales during the key holiday shopping weekend, a 24% year-over-year increase.

The brokerage warned clients to prepare for first-quarter seasonality, with Treiber noting that the period is typically soft. Over the last three years, revenue has been down an average 13% sequentially in the first quarter.

The consensus is modeling for a 15% sequential top-line decline in the first quarter. While that’s largely aligned with historical trends, Shopify’s guidance has surprised to the downside in the past, he said. The company’s shares have lost an average 17% following fourth-quarter results over the past three years, the research report showed.

The brokerage reiterated an outperform rating and a $130 price target on the stock.

Price: 106.35, Change: +0.06, Percent Change: +0.06

$SHOP

Source: MT Newswires